Current situation and trend analysis of China's po

Analysis on the development status and trend of China's power industry in 2019

: the national power supply and demand was relatively loose in 2018

. In 2018, China's total electricity consumption was 6844.9 billion kwh, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year. The national full caliber power generation was 6994 billion kwh, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous year

statistics of China's national power supply and demand in

data source: the forward looking Industry Research Institute collated

it is predicted that the national electricity consumption will exceed 700 billion kwh in 2019

according to the statistical data of the "analysis report on the market outlook and investment strategic planning of China's power industry" released by the forward looking Industry Research Institute, the national electricity consumption in 2016 has reached 5919.8 billion kwh, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year. By 2017, the electricity consumption of the whole society had reached 6307.7 billion kwh, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year. By the end of 2018, the electricity consumption of the whole society had reached 6844.9 billion kwh, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2019, China's total electricity consumption will exceed 700 billion kwh, reaching 7210.4 billion kwh. The compound annual growth rate in the next five years () is about 6.08%, and it is predicted that by 2023, China's total electricity consumption will reach 9130.8 billion kwh

statistics and prediction of electricity consumption in the whole country in

data source: the forward looking Industry Research Institute sorted out

the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2018 was 6844.9 billion kwh, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 72.8 billion kwh, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year; The power consumption of the secondary industry was 4723.5 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, of which the industrial power consumption was 4645.6 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1%,; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1080.1 billion kwh, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 968.5 billion kwh, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year

statistics on the proportion of power consumption structure of the whole society in 2018

data source: the forward-looking Industry Research Institute collated

it is predicted that China's power generation will also exceed 700 billion kwh in 2019

in 2016, the national power generation will be 5911.12 billion kwh, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. By 2017, the national power generation was 6275.82 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. By the end of 2018, China's cumulative power generation had reached 6791.42 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. It is estimated that in 2019, China's power generation will exceed 700 billion kwh, reaching 7115.1 billion kwh. The compound annual growth rate in the next five years () is about 6.13%, and it is predicted that China's power generation will reach 9025.4 billion kwh in 2023

statistics and prediction of national power generation in

data source: forward looking Industry Research Institute collates

analysis of adverse factors for the development of China's power industry

1. Power reform and market-oriented construction enter deep water. In recent years, the power reform has been comprehensively promoted and achieved remarkable results. The next power reform will gradually enter the deep-water area of overcoming difficulties and gnawing hard bones. Comprehensively reflected in:

1) policies vary from place to place. As a result, in the specific implementation process of various pilot projects, it is difficult to coordinate among the central departments, between the central and local governments, between the government and market entities, and between power enterprises and society. The rules are not standardized, and the market access standards vary from place to place

2) barriers exist in cross provincial transactions. The imperfect market trading system, imperfect varieties and asymmetric information restrict the cross regional trading and consumption scale of clean energy, and it is difficult to reflect the advantages of the market in resource allocation

3) the electricity price system needs to be improved. At present, the price from the upstream of power to the power industry chain and even the user side is still dominated by planned regulation, and there is a lack of reasonable market-oriented guidance mechanism, which leads to the wanton squeeze of the reasonable profit space of power generation enterprises, especially coal-fired power enterprises. There is no scientific supervision standard for the collection of transmission and distribution costs and price cross subsidies. The enthusiasm of power and social enterprises to invest in power distribution is frustrated, and the ability of sustainable development of the industry is weakened

4) there is a lack of relevant policies and specifications and development planning to support the incremental distribution pilot, the relevant laws and regulations are not clear, the regional division, construction and development of distribution stock and increment are difficult, the investment benefit is uncertain, and the risk of safe operation is increased

2. The safe and stable operation of the power system is facing a severe test

with the rapid development and continuous transformation and upgrading of China's electric power, the continuous extension of large-scale power, the continuous improvement of voltage level, the continuous increase of large-capacity and high parameter generator sets, large-scale centralized merger, the increasingly complex shape and operation characteristics of the power system, especially the increase of non-traditional hidden dangers brought by the application of new technologies such as information technology, which has a great impact on the system support capacity, transfer capacity The clamping force on the adjustable energy experimental machine puts forward higher requirements, which brings a severe test to the safe and stable operation of the power system to gradually eliminate the processes and products with large emissions of "three wastes" and difficult to treat

3. Environmental protection has become stricter and costs have increased.

the environmental protection tax law of the people's Republic of China was implemented on January 1, 2018. The taxable amount of local environmental protection tax can be increased to times the national standard, which will increase the cost of enterprises. Many provinces have introduced air pollutant emission standards that are stricter than the national requirements, and some regions have increased new requirements such as plume control and full closure of coal yards, which has increased the burden of environmental protection transformation of enterprises. The thermal power industry is one of the first industries to implement the pollution discharge permit management, which puts forward higher requirements for environmental protection management. The national carbon emission trading system was officially launched in December 2017, which has improved the economic system of green and low-carbon circular development, built a market-oriented green technology innovation system, promoted China's green and low-carbon development and higher quality development, and put forward higher requirements for thermal power plants to reduce greenhouse gases. The increasingly stringent requirements for low-carbon environmental protection have increased the cost of thermal power enterprises

analysis of favorable factors for the development of China's power industry

1. The reform of the power system continues to deepen, such as the allocation of computers - 1) deepening the reform of the power system and promoting the reform of the price mechanism are major decisions and arrangements made by the state. The establishment of the cost price supervision system framework of power enterprises marks a solid step in the "control the middle" of power system reform, which is conducive to accelerating the overall process of power system reform

2) power release and development plan is an important part of the new round of power system reform, the only way to build an effective competitive market structure and market system, and a key step in the transformation of power industry management means from "plan" to "market"

3) preventing and resolving the risk of overcapacity in coal-fired power enterprises is not only an inevitable requirement for accelerating the restructuring and integration of coal-fired power enterprises, but also for promoting the supply side structural reform, which highlights the foresight of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the scientific development of the energy industry

4) comprehensively promoting the reform of transmission prices across provinces and regions is an important part of establishing an independent transmission and distribution electricity price system, and an important guarantee measure to promote the free circulation of power resources, including clean and renewable energy, in a wider range

finally, DSM is an important part of the supply side structural reform, an effective starting point for promoting the reform of "deregulation and service", and a key means to promote the consumption of renewable energy

2. Explore overseas markets

in recent years, China's power industry has developed rapidly, and technology and management have made considerable progress. For example, UHV technology and supercritical have reached the world's advanced level, and the level of planning, construction, operation and maintenance management has been greatly improved. However, due to the normalization of the economy in recent years, the installed capacity of power generation has decreased year by year, and the policy of thermal power, the abandonment of wind and light, China's power enterprises have gradually opened up overseas markets

according to statistics, in recent years, China's foreign investment has been mainly in nine countries, with a total of 40 projects. The main investment fields in Southeast Asia are coal power and hydropower, and the South Asian countries are mainly wind power and coal power. For project contracting, a total of 295 projects have been invested in the past four years, distributed in more than 40 countries, covering most countries of the "the Belt and Road". In Southeast Asia, traditional coal-fired power and hydropower are still the main

by the end of 2017, the cumulative actual overseas investment of China's major power enterprises had reached US $74.6 billion. In 2017, major domestic power enterprises actually completed foreign investment of US $19.3 billion, an increase of 1.48 times over 2016. The investment involves hydropower, thermal power, new energy transmission and distribution and other fields

3. The proportion of new energy continues to increase

with the development of economy and society, renewable energy has been given new missions such as energy conservation and emission reduction, greenhouse gas emission control and air pollution prevention and control. In particular, the "blue sky defense campaign" was included in the 2017 government work report, which further indicates that during and after the 13th Five Year Plan period, the development of renewable energy will be mentioned to a higher market prospect, and its share in China's energy system will further increase

according to the statistics of China Electricity Council, the installed capacity of new energy power generation accounted for 53.7% in 2017, exceeding 50% for the first time, and the power structure continued to be optimized. The national installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation accounted for 38.8% of the country's total installed capacity, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous year. The new installed capacity of new energy power generation in the eastern and central regions accounted for 76.0% of the new installed capacity of new energy power generation nationwide, an increase of 18.1 percentage points over the previous year, and the layout of new energy power generation continued to shift to the eastern and central regions

in 2017, a total of five DC and two AC UHV projects were put into operation across the country, with a new trans regional transmission capacity of 43.5 million KW, and the national trans regional transmission capacity of 130 million KW, greatly improving the ability and ability to optimize the allocation of energy resources across regions. In 2017, the country's abandoned wind power was 41.9 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8 billion kwh, and the abandoned wind rate was 12%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points, which was the first time in three years that the abandoned wind power and the abandoned wind rate "both fell"

4. Reduce general industrial and commercial electricity prices

on March 28, 2018, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on matters related to reducing general industrial and commercial electricity prices. In order to implement the requirements of the central economic work conference on reducing the energy cost of enterprises and the government work report on reducing general industrial and commercial electricity prices, it was decided to implement the price reduction measures in two batches, implement the target of an average reduction of 10% in general industrial and commercial electricity prices, and further optimize the business environment. Notice requirements:

1) fully implement the issued electricity clearing policy

2) promote the reform of transmission price of regional electricity and cross provincial and cross regional special projects

3) further standardize and reduce the charge of electric links

4) temporarily reduce the transmission and distribution electricity price. The proportion of the newly increased planned transmission and distribution investment approved by the provincial power enterprises to be used for depreciation will be reduced from an average of 75% to 70%, reducing the pricing cost of this regulatory cycle and correspondingly reducing the transmission and distribution electricity price

the main purpose of reducing electricity prices at this stage is to reduce the industrial burden and improve the profitability of the industrial sector, so as to stimulate manufacturing and infrastructure investment and ensure steady economic growth in the face of challenges in the external trade environment

original title: current situation and trend analysis of China's power industry in 2019 four favorable factors promote the high-quality development of the industry